Thinking about Iowa results… To the most liberal, progressive folks in the Democratic party: Trump is coming for us. I hear a lot about world events and cultural issues, and not enough about what Biden has done and can still do. Let’s get real. Republicans are not going to stop Trump. It’s on us. 🇺🇸
@manton Correct. If the Democrats want to win, they need to convince Americans, especially rural Americans, that they are a better choice. Rural America is populated with quiet, disaffected independents who are either voting for Trump for personal economic reasons OR are staying home on voting day. Create a compelling vision or else.
@manton It's not just the Democrats. It's liberal media. Stop depicting rural Americans as a bunch of stupid, ignorant, raving fascists. They're not. The Dems abandoned rural America long ago. They're partly at fault for Trumpism. Give rural America a reason to believe... a vision... and then tell the liberal media to drop the insults. Otherwise, Dems lose. Period.
@paulcraig901 @manton This is the Democrat's equivalent of "The year of Linux on the desktop". They've been saying it's their year to get the messaging right for as long as I have been able to vote (20+ years).
@joelhamill @paulcraig901 @manton How do you overcome the perception that anyone with a (D) by their name is the devil incarnate? I see lots of people they don't like Trump but cannot vote for Biden or reasons. To me the decision between the two really comes down to whether one is for or against democracy, but it is apparent many others just don't see it that way.
@manton Regardless of what they call themselves when people, 40% are core Republicans, and 40% are core Democrats. The other 20% is what decides the elections. It's also incumbent on this 20% to identify the real danger and vote accordingly. Of course, we, as the 40% Democrats, need to peel off as many as we can, but hopefully, half of those 20% to join us. If all 20% do, it's a landslide like Lyndon Johnson.
@manton >Republicans are not going to stop Trump. It’s on us
I wish most non republicans understood this. There is nothing stopping them.
@paulcraig901 Every single? No. More than one would like, yes. I am reacting to all those who say they are Republicans, say the dislike Trump, and say they cannot vote for Biden or frankly any Democrat. POTUS is not elected via popular vote and the electoral college path to a electing POTUS is fairly specific and known and that margin is slim.
@frankm Thanks for the clarification. "More than one would like?" I'll agree with that. As a rural independent voter, I'm hearing a LOT of disgust with Trump and calls for the GOP to move on. I'm also hearing a lot of "Is this really our choice?" The party that forces the change could win big. But they won't.
@manton In 2020, I voted for normalcy. I voted for moderate. I voted against chaos and disorder. There are a lot of people in the middle of both parties who voted like I did.
I've been thinking about this and the latest Ezra Klein podcast with Kirstin Anderson. She points out that Trump is now the stable candidate for a lot of voters. The economy was good, the border was secure, things were stable globally, and even good in the Middle East (Abraham Accords). On their view, under Biden, the economy has been bad, the border has been open, and Afghanistan, Gaza, and Ukraine have all shown weakness from America.
I don't agree with many of these statements, but Biden's message of "I'm stable and Trump is chaotic," simply won't work on many voters for whom it worked four years ago. I know some of these people who have made this calculation. For Biden to beat Trump, he's gotta make the positive case for his presidency. He can't run on negative polarisation, which has been his forte.
@KyleEssary Well said. Biden's Valley Forge speech didn't help. He's accomplished much good. Caps on insulin pricing and an overall out of pocket cap on pharmaceuticals for those on Medicare is compelling. He needs to tell the American public specific policy plans that will benefit the working class and then ask what the GOP plans to do in the same policy area. Like you, I want centrist, moderate, normalcy.
@frankm Pondered this exchange overnight. Quick question: What is your reaction to Democrats who dislike Biden but cannot vote for Trump? I'm referring mostly to those of the further left persuasion who see Biden as further right than they like or want. Perhaps those who were staunch Bernie supporters who avoided voting in 2016.
@paulcraig901 My point of view starts with the belief that Trump has no understanding nor respect and thus no commitment to the Constitution and by extension is a threat to democracy. No matter what letter is next to the person's name, I am going to vote for the one who I believe is committed to the Constitution over the one I am certain is not. Full stop.
Yes, many on the left do not like Biden, but my argument to those on the left is that if you do not vote for Biden, or for whoever is opposite Trump in the general election, doing so increases the chance of Trump winning and a Trump white house most assuredly means you will not get whatever you want and very possibly means your life will get worse.
We now know what Trump will do if he becomes President, and more importantly we now know what the Republicans in Congress will NOT do if Trump is President. Frankly, based on Trump's past performance as President AND that Republicans in Congress refuse to hold a President Trump to any accountability, that alone should cause voters of all parties to not vote for him.
@paulcraig901 @KyleEssary What I want more than centrist, moderate, normalcy, is less fear about what a person in the office of President will do in the times of crisis and when things they don't like happen. Can I trust that person to do the right thing?
Trump turned COVID into a political circumstance rather than provide leadership during a life and death scenario. No President's first reaction to a disaster should be how it hurts his re-election or how he can capitalize on the situation rather than taking care of ALL citizens.
January 6 proved to me what Trump will do when something he doesn't like happens, he put himself above everything and everybody. Perhaps we can debate whether Trump lead an insurrection or participated in one, but we cannot debate what it is that he did, and what I saw and what I have read of what he did and did not do is disqualifying.
If more than a majority of people cannot agree to basic, fundamental lines, I don't know how any discussion about policy matters.
@frankm Thank you for the thoughtful, eloquent responses. I appreciate it. And I agree with you. This is a matter of trust. I have no trust in Trump or the GOP.
@paulcraig901 Just out of curiosity, who are you referring to as “the liberal media” here? Can you give examples where you think they depict rural Americans as “ignorant, raving fascists”? I have heard claims like this before, but try as I might I have had a hard time finding mainstream examples.
@paulcraig901 While I agree that democrats have largely abandoned issues valued by rural voters, I suspect there’s a bit of a correlation vs. causation factor at play.
From what I have heard, the single most significant predictor of a voter’s support for Trumpism isn’t rural vs. urban, it isn’t gender, and it isn’t even traditional allegiance to one party or the other. It is education level. The Democratic Party and some of the mainstream Republican party has ignored the concerns of those without a bachelor’s degree (or higher) for decades. Those voters are often angry about being left behind, scared about their unknown future, or both.
Urban and suburban voters are significantly more likely to have college degrees, so you tend to see these voters more broadly in rural areas. But there many of these voters in urban, suburban, and exurban areas as well.
@dynamitemoth I'll respond with the following links: 1) Across the Divide: Liberals must give up their addiction to contempt for rural voters and 2) What Liberal Elites Don’t Know About Rural Americans Can Hurt Us. The second is by Wendell Berry. Both pieces refer to specific instances.
@dynamitemoth I'm willing to entertain the education point. To a point. It doesn't explain this: "In 1996, Bill Clinton won about half of U.S. counties that were at least 85% white and earned less than the national median income—i.e. rural counties. In 2016, such counties went 658 for Donald Trump and two for Hillary Clinton." And it's not all about abandonment and ridicule... but they're never going to win hearts and minds if they continue those behaviors.
@dynamitemoth I think this is a good point. My most liberal friends say things about how the economy has been good, "just look at the numbers," but this assumes basic access to information largely behind paywalls, basic understanding of how an economy works, and a willingness to long long-term at issues.
For many rural voters, as well as many inner-city voters, milk still costs twice as much as three years ago, and the price of Netflix keeps going up. Those matter much more than the latest jobs report.
@paulcraig901 Thanks for these links, and sorry for the delayed response. I did an initial read, spent a few days thinking about them, and then a re-read. Definitely good food for thought.
For the most part, I think that the opinion piece from Becky Bennett makes the mistake of equating disrespect for Trump and the worst of his followers with disrespect for rural Americans. There is certainly overlap between those two audiences, but as I said before I think there is evidence that this is not a causal relationship.
The Wendell Berry link is more interesting to me, given that he is specifically talking about the misrepresentation of rural Americans by a certain liberal publication - The New York Review of Books. Berry's criticisms here are absolutely fair and he makes a persuasive case that NYRB was disrespecting rural voters.
All that being said, I take a little issue with complaints about "the liberal media", as if there isn't equal disrespect shown to urban voters coming from conservative media. To hear Fox news (and worse) tell it, the beautiful and diverse urban neighborhoods that I live in and near are nothing more than crime-ridden hell holes. Conservative media is just as disrespectful to me and my values, if not more so, than liberal media is to rural Americans.
To be clear, I am not trying to defend the Democratic party that has ignored rural America for too long. Nor am I excusing the liberal voices on social media and elsewhere who ridicule Trump voters rather than engaging with them in good faith. Both tend to make matters worse rather than persuading others to vote differently.
But I do feel that pointing the finger at the liberal media minimizes the responsibility of partisans - on both sides - for our current state of affairs. I place blame more generally on hyper-partisan media and the tendency of both sides to treat their opponents with disrespect.
@dynamitemoth No apology necessary for the delay and thank you for the thoughtful response. After a 20 year stint as an urbanite, we moved at the start of the pandemic to a small town in western Michigan. The people I see and speak with every say are normal folks who are doing the best they know how. They're common sense people who love their community and family. Some are religious. Some aren't. Most are apolitical, like the rest of the country. Are there extremists? I've seen a couple. The majority? Gosh no. Your statement on hyper-partisan media is spot on. Again, thank you.
