Quitting programming as a career right now because of LLMs would be like quitting carpentry as a career thanks to the invention of the table saw.
This analogy works in a couple different ways. You can ignore the table saw if you love the craft of creating with hand tools. You can use the table saw where it saves time and still be proud of the end result.
@manton just a small difference: nobody is going to pay your software a premium just because it's 100% hand crafted. It will be paid the same as market rate but will cost you much more to produce.
I'm not saying I love this, but that's a reality.
@andreagrandi For software, you’re right. For other things, like novels or paintings, hand-crafted will be more valuable. Software is a little different because so much of the process isn’t visible.
@manton Yes, as direct reason this has no weight in making such decision.
The problem is that in the meantime all the kids in the village got their hands on the chainsaws, and are running around chopping everything down.
a.k.a.: The upcoming wave of slop “products”.
*This* may have direct effect on developers. Apps, esp. the indie ones, may drown in the sea of slop soon. That’s what could make you quit.
@manton On the other hand, if moderation can somehow win, then the indies may get the biggest wins from cloning themselves, to work on their ideas at 10x, 100x.
@mrudokas Yeah, I think with a lot markets, what is going to need to happen is that creators and customers have more of a direct relationship. I read articles or buy software from people and companies that I trust, not random slop that is promoted.
@manton That’s a great analogy. I must admit, I do struggle with the future of my career as a web developer but I have embraced LLMs as a tool rather than a competitor. It’s working out so far, but there will come a time when LLMs will do most of the work.
@manton As someone who likes working with hand tools and writing my own code, this “hits the nail on the head” (sorry).
@manton That is valid for very narrow slice of population though.
I can’t remember clicking an ad ever, but that does not mean that this business model does not work on 98% of the population. Same for AI slop.
So the question is – will that be scalable to the sustainable level?
This probably gonna end up being another Great Filter for indies.
@palousegeo @manton Working with hand tools is fine when working for love, but when doing professional work, power tools are necessary.
@manton This analogy fails because you can’t prompt either a hand saw or a table saw to build the house for you. The operator has more skill than the hand saw or skill saw. Programming, like writing, as a career will undergo attrition because AI/LLM, prompted correctly, can do 90% of the coding/writing without human skill. Programmers will not be “programmers,” but rather code editors. Houses built inside controlled manufacturing plants using robotics with little human input is the better analogy.
@apoorplayer Do you remember Zach Mannheimer? He was a blogger who ran a theater in Brooklyn, and then did a cross-country tour to choose a city to start a theater project. He chose Iowa City, moved there, and within 5 years he had a multi-venue arts and education org. He left that and founded Alquist, specializing in 3D printed buildings. youtu.be/G0QCmtHZb…