Not sure what to make of the WSJ’s report on Anthropic’s draft IPO prospectus:
The company is on the hook to pay around $450 billion in cloud computing agreements over the next seven to ten years. The bulk of these deals are noncancelable.
Not great. They probably should’ve built data centers a year ago like OpenAI did. I don’t believe AI is a bubble, but this IPO makes it feel like it, and a lot of companies will fail.
@manton I think AI almost certainly is a bubble. However, it’s not in the sense that it’s a useless product with over-inflated values, but in the sense that the financial infrastructure around a useful technology is currently unsustainable. So, more of a late 90s dot com bubble, than an 2008 sub prime mortgage bubble. The web survived and thrived after the bubble deflated, and I’m sure AI will too.
@manton AI-related businesses defying basic business rules and laws…
@numericcitizen It reminds me of the “new economy” talk of the late 1990s, where the web had changed the fundamentals of economics, apparently. Or, as it turned out, not.
@manton I think you and I are on the same page on this except in the definition of “bubble.” It seems like you’re looking at the long-term potential of AI and seeing that it’s going to be incredibly valuable. I agree.
It’s also true that right now the capabilities are being oversold. Dramatically so. People are acting on that with investments and that is the bubble in the financial marketplace. There will definitely be companies that go bust before we hit that long-term potential.
