Hard to believe it’s only been 4 days since I blogged that the debate is over about the nominee. Schiff’s statement + Pelosi saying he can’t win + Biden getting COVID… At this point, it’s like swimming upstream. Might be time to call it. 🇺🇸
@manton I originally thought on Saturday much as you blogged—it's over. Just get on with it. But since about late Monday it occurred to me that the argument for replacing Biden is even stronger because of the risk to down ballot races. Schumer said as much this morning I read.
@lukemperez Big dem donors are (I read) moving their focus from the presidency to congressional runs, which seems like a very good idea to me. The presidency is lost for dems, barring some very strange event.
@lukemperez Yeah. Also, the campaign needs a narrative reset. It's not impossible with Biden but it's challenging.
@JohnBrady Yup. I do think there’s an inside line in which Dems nominate someone like Mark Kelly who pulls off the win. My prior on that is that since it really only matters which handful of states swing, he or someone like him might be able to do it.
But that scenario seems highly improbable. Harris as VP is the most likely, not least because only she can easily inherit Biden’s campaign funds. Even a month ago that could maybe happen. But this late in the game, with virtual nomination already delayed a week to get Biden out, it’s going to be Harris.