We keep talking about the wrong category of problems. explodingcomma.com
@petebrown > I think we would have had to have started already.
Well, we're in the middle of an energy revolution easily as significant as the last one. BBC.COM And we can't yet see the end of it. I'm not exactly optimistic but the future's still open.
@writingslowly yeah, for sure. I agree with that.
I guess what I meant—and could have stated more clearly—is that we would have needed to be a lot farther along that road for there not to be significant and ongoing systemic disruptions. I’m all for the changes we are making, but we are well past the point (if there ever actually was such a point) where we can science our way out of these disruptions. And just to be clear, I don’t mean to imply you were saying we can science our way out.
@petebrown Agreed. But in truth, it's already too late. We should still make the effort to mitigate but worst case scenarios are no baked in. Year-by-year, decade by decade, we get further into how much worse. We're at 1.5° now and have all but guaranteed 2° of warming. Many climate scientists say we are irreversibly headed to 3 to 4°. The time to act was 10 years ago. And in 2025 we are poised to continue in the wrong direction for years to come.
I see no signs that the majority are willing to act. Most people in the Global North continue to insist that there is nothing they can do. Citizens point fingers of blame at everyone but themselves and insist on going about normal life with no disruption or inconvenience.
There is and will be little to no protest to force the kind of political and systemic changes needed. There is and will be too little effort at the local level to institute change.
I woke up this morning in my tiny house at 56° F just as I let it warm to 80°+ in the summer. I refuse to fly. I rarely drive. I had no children and am a vegetarian. I can go on and on about my individual efforts as well as my efforts to protest and organize locally over the years. But in all of my extended family there is not a one that has made any effort. None. I look around and I see those of the Global North unwilling to make even a minimum effort. What's required is far more drastic than the minimum.
We are far, far past the point where a technical fix will solve this crisis. It was likely never the fix. Nate Hagens of The Great Simplification podcast has been discussing this for years. The back catalog is deep with interviews about what he calls the economic superorganism.
@petebrown I basically agree with your prognosis (too little, too late), but still feel that since change is happening (albeit not fast or deep enough), therefore the future isn't totally determined. It's quite hard to tell, in advance of its consequences, what counts as a real change. It's hard for me to see major global transformations (such as in energy production) and say these won't make any difference to anything, or to the things that really matter. 'Fundamental changes in how we live' sound like civilizational shifts to me. The good news is that these happen frequently. Civilizations are always collapsing and new ones taking their place. The bad news is that it's rough if you're trying to live through it.
@Denny Thanks for reminding me about Nate Hagens. I used to appreciate his Oil Drum forum and will check out his podcasts.