Good news: Despite case rise, excess deaths have been dropping, nearly back to 100% after high 142%. Bad news: @epiellie thinks it’s just lag: early test ➛ more lead time. Cases up 3-4 wks ago, ICU 2-3, deaths up last period. Q: why do ensemble models expect steady death rate?
@ctwardy July 15 CovidTracker counts through Jul 15. Deaths are up in the South where cases rose 4 wks ago, half from AZ CA FL TX.
Ensemble US death forecasts still looks linear, but AZ, CA, FL, TX accelerate.
Hoping pop’n. IFR rates are falling to match. @mbishop @epiellie