Anybody following Brexit? I suspected a 2nd referendum since shortly after the first, but haven’t followed and couldn’t say now whether that suspicion was warranted. With Brexit nearing, it’d be interesting to find out how wrong I was. Who’s an expert or three worth a read?

@jamesdasher for a second referendum to be seen as legitimate, there needs to be a change in the situation that made it seem reasonable to have a new referendum. I wondered if seeing the actual deal might lead to this but I’ve grown increasingly pessimistic. The leader of the opposition had been trying to force a new election instead of a referendum, he also seems more keen on either brexit with a deal, or brexit without a deal, not staying in. The brexit believers seem to be moving to try and force a no deal brexit by dragging the process out so no deal occurs. I find that outcome as distinctly possible. There’s no one leading the political discussion in the uk at the moment. Conservatives can’t alienate leave voters who they’ve just won back (and that wasn’t enough to get a majority in the snap election), labour aren’t the party of power and they need to keep leave voters on side as well as remain voters. No One can push the debate forward enough and so no action seems the most likely to me. IMO

@ChrisJWilson wow, thanks! I hadn’t known Corbyn was so uncommitted on the issue. It’s amazing that a leadership vacuum has persisted for so long, across the political spectrum. So, the consensus is that Brexit will happen, regardless of who’s in power?

@jamesdasher I should state that I'm a Brit living abroad and I know my impression isn't 100% accurate. I think it does help me gain a slightly different perspective from some Brits though. I'd bet you could find people who disagree with me, I think they'd probably say the political leader they agree with is pushing things forward. I think the issue is that more or less 52% voted to leave, but there are different ideas within that about how to leave. And things haven't really changed since then. So any proposal on how to leave needs to convince either all the leavers, or enough remainers, and the remainers can't win because the argument of “you hate democracy’ (whether true or not) seems to convince enough people that brexit must happen. However, if everything changed tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised.

@jamesdasher Corbyn is a leaver, as are many of his shadow cabinet (he follows a long tradition of left-wing anti-EU sentiment: they see it as a ‘capitalist club’).

There are all sorts of constitional complexities to it, but we’ve reached a position where there are parliamentary majorities against every option, but nothing with a majority for it. Meanwhile May has a great technique of just keeping her head down and plodding on (which is the story of her career) while the storm blows over which, I think, puts the odds (slightly) in favour of her getting the country to some form of Brexit.

@ChrisJWilson being a Brit abroad probably helps you see familiar things more clearly. Thanks for the explanation — that’s an amazing amount of uncertainty, and obviously no clear path to recognize and act on the fact that that no majority exists to legitimize any of the options. A blind spot in most democratic systems that we don’t really think about very much. And now it’s really too late to stand up a solution in time to deal with the situation.

@jamescousins well, it is a capitalist club, and free movement of labor helps individual workers, but hurts workers in the aggregate and only owners/capital win individually and collectively. But it’s surprising that Labour hasn’t come around to a more Euro-participant vision akin to something like what Yannis Varoufakis has been pushing with his post-financial-collapse movement. (DIEM something?)

@jamesdasher i think this discussion is too big for comments …. but hell - why not ... the whole things was fueled by lies and deceptions and laziness … it is clear than nobody knew what they were voting for ... witness “I want the right to go to europe unfettered' ... but I don’t want 'them' coming here … and and and

SO - the right thing to do is spell out clearly what we are signing up for and then vote ..

but that’s a big ask to do before march - if not to say against what so many people want

this will result in

• the loss of the UK to Europe
• the next phase of the breakdown of the UK and
• the final nail in the coffin for the few parts left of the commonwealth

and

Scotland will finally rid itself of the oppressive english overlords only to be replaced with oppressive European ones.

Cameroon (sic) should be at least embarrassed Boris the Buffoon needs to be locked up Gove is no better than his caricature and Bliar needs to shut up.

@JohnPhilpin bleak! But seems accurate.

@jamesdasher From an outsider prospective, there does seem a path to a 2nd referendum or Parliament simpying canceling Brexit:
- The DUP brings down the government over the border issue.
- Labor doesn't win a majority, but could form a government with the SNP.
- Scotland is strongly Remain, so the SNP demands a 2nd referendum or straight up canceling as the price of putting Labor into power.

Likely, no. Possible? I think.

@jamesdasher No, it isn’t a capitalist club. It’s a collection of nations. Sometimes they go one way on political ideology, sometimes another. Collectively they are a positive force and the UK is weaker outside.

@jamescousins well, that’s fair, and nuanced to boot. And as a non-resident to a resident, it’d be wise to defer to your assessment anyway. :)

@jamesdasher don’t shoot the messenger ;-) as an Englishman not in New York ...

@JohnPhilpin @jamesdasher I think May’s head down and carry on is probably going to get us too close to March to change course so I’m quite pessimistic about the prospects.

I think, though, that there is hope that the next generations of political leaders will learn from the tragic mistakes of this generation.

@jamescousins @jamesdasher

History suggests that we do not learn from history.

@simonwoods

There’s a graphic in there somewhere.

// @jamescousins @jamesdasher

@simonwoods sign of the times: I’d buy that T-shirt. Thanks to you, @jamescousins @JohnPhilpin @Bruce @ChrisJWilson for an insightful and enlightening exchange.

@Bruce definitely unlikely, but yes, possible.

@jamescousins I agreed so much with “majority against everything and in favour of nothing.” And I believe your assessment of May is pretty accurate there.

@simonwoods @jamescousins @JohnPhilpin @jamesdasher I’d like the addition of

“Heads down, thumbs up and carry on.”