@pimoore @Gaby hope is not a strategy unfortunately. Until western powers retake control of the escalation ladder, we should expect this to get worse before it has any hope of getting better.
@pimoore @Gaby he isn’t a madman, which makes what he does worse morally, but it means it’s possible to shape his incentives. The notion of freeing carefully unfortunately concedes to him all the initiative. The west need not be reckless. But it must be serious about deterring Putin. So far, we haven’t.
@pimoore @Gaby lend-lease heavy artillery, the new International Legion, and (maybe) covert operations. A NFZ slows down the Russian offensive, making this an old school infantry vs infantry war. That might buy the time Ukraine needs until the sanctions really start kicking in.
The problem is no one in leadership seems to have any interest in strategic thought. But the lessons and templates are readily available.