{"version":"https://jsonfeed.org/version/1","title":"Micro.blog - Johannes von Cramon","home_page_url":"https://micro.blog","feed_url":"https://micro.blog/posts/jovcra","_microblog":{"about":"https://micro.blog/about/api","id":"1921514","username":"jovcra","bio":"Independent app marketing consultant specializing in ASO, UA, growth, and analytics. Off the clock, I write about tech and other things that catch my eye.","pronouns":"","is_following":false,"is_you":false,"following_count":1,"discover_count":0},"author":{"name":"Johannes von Cramon","url":"http://johannesvoncramon.de","avatar":"https://avatars.micro.blog/avatars/2026/23/1921514.jpg"},"items":[{"id":"94749734","content_html":"

From the NYT editorial board:

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The best policy going forward would be a strengthening of the controls. Regulators should avoid approving any H200 requests unless they become confident that H200 would not strengthen China’s A.I. capabilities. The Trump administration should maintain the ban on Blackwell sales and should extend it to the next generation of chips, known as Rubin.

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Ben Thompson has long advocated for releasing the chips while tightening the ban on the equipment that China’s own factories rely on. His Taiwan deterrence case is that selling advanced chips keeps Chinese buyers reliant on TSMC...

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Chris Best, CEO of Substack, coined the excellent term Claudefishing to describe the central problem with AI-generated text: readers unknowingly investing their attention in writing that has no human judgment or thought behind it.

\n","summary":"","url":"https://johannesvoncramon.de/2026/07/27/chris-best-ceo-of-substack/","date_published":"2026-07-27T10:19:54+00:00","author":{"name":"Johannes von Cramon","url":"http://johannesvoncramon.de","avatar":"https://cdn.micro.blog/photos/96/https%3A%2F%2Favatars.micro.blog%2Favatars%2F2026%2F23%2F1921514.jpg","_microblog":{"username":"jovcra"}},"_microblog":{"date_relative":"10:19","date_timestamp":1785147594,"is_favorite":false,"is_bookmark":false,"is_deletable":false,"is_conversation":false,"is_linkpost":false,"is_mention":false,"is_podcast":false,"note":"","syndication":["https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r5epxhh5vjtuatu7lfrxd6as/post/3mrmomjedll27","https://www.threads.com/@jovcra/post/DbSuXyyG5qZ"]}},{"id":"94723344","content_html":"

John Gruber argues that no AI company will use the Android AI interoperability APIs the European Commission just mandated for Google, just as no 3rd party browser used Apple’s DMA browser engine APIs. His reason: the EU user base is not large enough to justify building a custom web browser, or an AI...

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There was a lot of discussion this week about cheaper Chinese AI models after the release of the new Kimi K3 model. The tech media framed it primarily as the beginning of a price war. That framing seems off.

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Ben Thompson’s “Who’s Afraid of Chinese Models?\" piece rightfully argues that the correct result matters more than the token. Models burn different amounts of chain-of-thought tokens to reach the same conclusion.

\n

And there might be another reason for the price difference:

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\n

Right now there is a price umbrella that is downstream of the lack of compute; I highly doubt that Chinese models are cheaper...

\n
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The researchers Agarwal and Sen ran an interesting field study with 1,065 US Chrome users in January this year. The users had to install an extension toggling AI Overviews off and on. The paper is the first randomized evidence on what this actually means for publishers.

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Google’s standing defense has been...

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More than 60 apps passed Apple App Store review while hiding an online gambling platform behind weather icons, maps, and travel games. The front end behaved correctly for reviewers, then switched to a betting UI the moment a Brazilian IP address connected.

\n

As if that weren’t enough, the operators published a...

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On July 14, Apple notified advertisers about an update to its Terms of Service. The old text defined ad properties as covering “Apple software applications or Apple devices.” The new text adds “web applications, or other platforms or properties” and drops the word “Apple.”

\n

Aside from the obvious rumors of an

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Earlier this month, I laid out the contract math on Netflix renewals. Since the costs of casting and showrunning significantly increase from season to season, they prefer producing low-budget, limited-run series.

\n

Eric Seufert did a great follow up with a piece that adds the demand side: Netflix'...

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A New York Times analysis published this week adds data to a feeling that I believe many of us already had: over the past decade, US productivity grew at roughly twice the rate of real compensation. Labor’s share of national income sits near a 78-year low. Tech employment contracted for 18 consecutive...

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Wild stat from a recent Marketing Science study: 96% of sponsored tweets carried no disclosure. Other studies found similar rates on YouTube and Pinterest.

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To this day, the FTC has never obtained a monetary penalty from an individual influencer for a disclosure violation. The agency mostly targets brands,...

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In the early days of Growfirst, an app marketing agency I co-founded in 2016, we constantly cited Hopper as a best practice for cutting-edge growth marketing (or growth hacking, as it was called back then). Highly relevant push notifications, perfectly timed permission prompts, and gamification that kept...

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Ryan Broderick’s piece this week frames Netflix’s catalog strategy as deliberate shovelware production, and a Bloomberg report confirms it: Beef’s viewership dropped from roughly 30 million views to 10 million between seasons. Across big titles, the range runs from 30% to over 70%. Netflix describes this as...

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Meta got a roughly 10% pop for planning to resell its excess AI compute, a business the market can finally put on a spreadsheet. In contrast to Zuck’s Superintelligence, which seems to lead nowhere. But reselling compute to monetize overbuilt infrastructure is a sign that a company has stopped making the case for its core business. Barely anyone at Meta speaks for the advertising engine that funds it all.

\n

Eric Seufert traces this vacuum to a specific absence:

\n
\n

But I believe that Meta is currently gripped by a strategic morass that prevents it from making a convincing argument that these investments are...

\n
johannesvoncramon.de","summary":"","url":"https://johannesvoncramon.de/2026/07/07/meta-got-a-roughly-pop/","date_published":"2026-07-07T16:41:43+00:00","author":{"name":"Johannes von Cramon","url":"http://johannesvoncramon.de","avatar":"https://cdn.micro.blog/photos/96/https%3A%2F%2Favatars.micro.blog%2Favatars%2F2026%2F23%2F1921514.jpg","_microblog":{"username":"jovcra"}},"_microblog":{"date_relative":"2026-07-07 16:41","date_timestamp":1783442503,"is_favorite":false,"is_bookmark":false,"is_deletable":false,"is_conversation":false,"is_linkpost":false,"is_mention":false,"is_podcast":false,"note":"","syndication":[]}},{"id":"93183859","content_html":"

In Q1 2026, library titles drew roughly 25 billion streaming hours against 7.3 billion for originals. More than 75% of all streaming time was spent on catalog content such as Friends, Suits, and Modern Family.

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Strip out Netflix and the catalog share climbs even higher to roughly 90%. Netflix is the only...

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A University of Chicago study surveyed 338 students. 60% admitted to using AI in their own coursework, while 90% reported that their peers did. People disclose what they judge acceptable to admit about themselves.

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Classic social-desirability bias.

\n","summary":"","url":"https://johannesvoncramon.de/2026/06/30/a-university-of-chicago-study/","date_published":"2026-06-30T10:45:36+00:00","author":{"name":"Johannes von Cramon","url":"http://johannesvoncramon.de","avatar":"https://cdn.micro.blog/photos/96/https%3A%2F%2Favatars.micro.blog%2Favatars%2F2026%2F23%2F1921514.jpg","_microblog":{"username":"jovcra"}},"_microblog":{"date_relative":"2026-06-30 10:45","date_timestamp":1782816336,"is_favorite":false,"is_bookmark":false,"is_deletable":false,"is_conversation":false,"is_linkpost":false,"is_mention":false,"is_podcast":false,"note":"","syndication":["https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r5epxhh5vjtuatu7lfrxd6as/post/3mpit5hq2yi26","https://www.threads.com/@jovcra/post/DaNQjgmlOGF"]}},{"id":"93180371","content_html":"

According to an internal OpenAI study, a quarter of Codex users now delegate 8+ hour tasks, up from 2% a year ago. But fewer than 1% of individuals use Codex at all. Inside OpenAI, 99.8% of work runs through it.

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This is them measuring themselves, not the market.

\n","summary":"","url":"https://johannesvoncramon.de/2026/06/30/according-to-an-internal-openai/","date_published":"2026-06-30T10:33:30+00:00","author":{"name":"Johannes von Cramon","url":"http://johannesvoncramon.de","avatar":"https://cdn.micro.blog/photos/96/https%3A%2F%2Favatars.micro.blog%2Favatars%2F2026%2F23%2F1921514.jpg","_microblog":{"username":"jovcra"}},"_microblog":{"date_relative":"2026-06-30 10:33","date_timestamp":1782815610,"is_favorite":false,"is_bookmark":false,"is_deletable":false,"is_conversation":false,"is_linkpost":false,"is_mention":false,"is_podcast":false,"note":"","syndication":["https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r5epxhh5vjtuatu7lfrxd6as/post/3mpishsku6t2t","https://www.threads.com/@jovcra/post/DaNPK_jlvhU"]}},{"id":"93121192","content_html":"

4 in 5 under-16s in Australia are still on social media, three months after the ban.

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A BMJ study found most were verified by selfie or a typed age. Almost none were asked for real ID.

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What a farce. The UK will be next in 2027.

\n","summary":"","url":"https://johannesvoncramon.de/2026/06/29/in-unders-in-australia-are/","date_published":"2026-06-29T12:38:37+00:00","author":{"name":"Johannes von Cramon","url":"http://johannesvoncramon.de","avatar":"https://cdn.micro.blog/photos/96/https%3A%2F%2Favatars.micro.blog%2Favatars%2F2026%2F23%2F1921514.jpg","_microblog":{"username":"jovcra"}},"_microblog":{"date_relative":"2026-06-29 12:38","date_timestamp":1782736717,"is_favorite":false,"is_bookmark":false,"is_deletable":false,"is_conversation":false,"is_linkpost":false,"is_mention":false,"is_podcast":false,"note":"","syndication":["https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r5epxhh5vjtuatu7lfrxd6as/post/3mpgiyopfoj2s","https://www.threads.com/@jovcra/post/DaK4sw9FBQY"]}},{"id":"93012000","content_html":"

An Anthropic study on agentic coding sessions found that experienced users completed working, verified solutions at twice the rate of novices: 28-33% versus 15%.

\n

The gap comes from how they prompt. Experts issued 12 actions per session and wrote around 3,200 words. Novices only issued 5 actions and wrote...

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SemiAnalysis puts the compute each Claude Max subscriber actually burns at $8,000 of API list-rate tokens, and Codex users closer to $14,000. Although serving costs are roughly a quarter of the list price, the actual loss per plan amounts to a few thousand dollars. Still a serious burn rate.

\n

But every Max...

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Four companies just wrote a $1BN check into AppsFlyer. Meta, Google, Unity, and Moloco do not commit that kind of capital to a neutral third-party MMP unless they have come to one conclusion: Apple’s own attribution framework is dead.

\n

Five years ago, Apple forced the ecosystem onto SKAN under the threat of...

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Drew Gooden’s The Music Industry is Broken video is the best breakdown of how Spotify and other music streaming services pay artists so poorly, and why AI makes an already bad situation even worse.

\n

Spotify doesn’t pay a per-stream rate. It pays by streamshare: a fixed monthly pool of subscription revenue, divided according to each rightsholder’s proportion of total streams.

\n

Every new track added is another claimant on the same money. Flood the catalog with cheap functional tracks or AI-generated filler, and individual artists' payouts shrink even if their own stream counts hold steady.

\n
\n

Well,...

\n
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Alice Han and James Kynge’s China Decode newsletter makes a case that most coverage of the AI race gets wrong. The real contest is physical, and China is already ahead:

\n
\n

I’ve long believed the AI race extends well beyond generative AI and large language models. That’s certainly the way China sees it. While the private sector in the U.S. spends 12 times as much on computing power, China spends 42% more on robotics, a gap that’s only going to widen. Where AI and robotics intersect, China has an edge.

\n
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China now produces roughly 90% of the world’s humanoid robots. At the same time, China’s NDRC has...

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Two weeks ago, the Landgericht München I ruled that Google’s AI Overviews constitute Google’s own content. The decision classifies Google as “unmittelbarer Störer,” a direct infringer, and strips away the liability shield that protects traditional search engines from third-party content claims. Google can no...

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David Pierce, writing for The Verge:

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Still, there is something about Shortcuts that feels like a model for implementing AI. It’s not flashy or overwrought, and it’s not AI as an entirely new revolutionary interface that will change how you do everything forever and just trust me bro AI is the new UI. It’s not trying to be creative or proactive, it’s there to do what AI actually does well: figure out what you’re asking for and navigate the databases to try and make it happen.

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These natural-language shortcuts are effectively just vibe-coding projects, which is slightly ironic, given Apple’s apparently...

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Apple released a major update to its Foundation Model Framework (FMF) which enables app developers to integrate advanced AI models in 3 ways:

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But the latter needs consent, which will disincentivize their usage due to possible low opt-in rates.

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Eric Seufert speculated back in February that it could also be a monetization opportunity for Apple:

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A more pertinent question is, perhaps: if Apple is able to dissuade developers from utilizing third-party AI...

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